Ethiopia’s economy: Neither a sprint nor a marathon

Africa’s most impressive economic managers suffer from excessive caution

May 30th 2015 | ADDIS ABABA

NOWHERE in Africa is modern China more of a lodestar than in Ethiopia, which on May 24th held an uneventful election with a predetermined outcome: another term in office for the long-standing ruling party. The continent’s second most populous country and fastest-growing big economy has close intellectual links with China’s Communists and often sends officials to their party school in Beijing. There Ethiopians imbibe the gospel of industrialisation overseen by a strong state that exerts tight control over an ethnically diverse population with a history of strife.

But all is not well in the relationship. When a new Chinese ambassador arrived in Addis Ababa in February, he presented an unexpectedly awkward message to his hosts. La Yifan told the ruling elite—behind firmly closed doors—that it must discard the isolationism of the past and open up an economy in which the flow of money and information is still restricted. Banking and telecoms are almost antediluvian (see chart). Investors are frustrated. Trade lags expectations. After years of praising the government, the Chinese are now singing from the same hymn sheet as Ethiopia’s Western critics.  

The problem is a lack of courage. Many in the Ethiopian government, ruling party and security apparatus acknowledge that only further reforms can sustain the goals of economic growth and political stability. But they are slow to enact them.

The government’s main priority is industrialisation. But endless red tape and restrictions on finance deter investors. Officials point to Huajian, a Chinese shoemaker that has gone from employing 600 locals to 3,500 in a few years. But Ethiopia needs a hundred Huajians. Without faster growth of industry, the country will struggle to absorb labour it hopes to free up from modernising subsistence farms that provide a living to 80% of its people.

The government is trying to help industry by building roads, railways, power stations and dams—following the Chinese playbook. These efforts have kept the official GDP growth rate above 10%, although outside experts reckon a more realistic tally is 7-8%. Inflation has dropped to single digits. But no progress has been made towards joining the World Trade Organisation in the past three years. And the prospects for attracting desperately needed foreign equity capital remain dim.

The fear of being overthrown looms behind the elite’s reluctance to reform. In some ways it is a victim of its own success. Discipline and administrative sophistication have given the elite access to coercive tools that many counterparts on the continent can only dream of. But now it finds it hard to imagine life without them.

The situation has become worse not better since the death in 2012 of Meles Zenawi, the prime minister and architect of the country’s resurrection after a bloody civil war between 1974 and 1991. By force of personality, intellect and ties forged in battle he could on occasion shift the system forward. Admittedly, he hated the private sector and civil society. But at least he removed logjams. After his death the government pulled off a peaceful transition of power. The deputy prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, took over as planned.

The new leadership is much more collective. The prime minister is no Meles, whose legacy as it turns out included masking how divided the regime has always been. Before ministers make decisions now they often need to seek the consent of the old guard. And ethnic Tigrayans, of whom Meles was one, still control the army, security services, telecoms and foreign affairs. It will take at least another decade for them to retire or die.

The new prime minister is a reasonable and, to some extent, reform-minded man. But he is a relatively weak figure. He is probably going to be confirmed as party leader at a congress of the ruling EPRDF in September, but his tenure is not assured. Few have forgotten why Meles chose him: as a political leader from the ethnically fragmented south of the country he is no threat to the more dominant groups.

One senior member of the Chinese community in Ethiopia describes, with some frustration, what he sees as the country’s big problem: that in China the central government dominates the regions but in Ethiopia everything is federal. Business parks are built by regional rota, for example, not in the best locations. Furthermore, Mao’s maxim that “the party controls the gun” is neglected; the securocrats are a law unto themselves.

And lastly, although the senior leadership in Ethiopia is very capable, the country lacks China’s talented mid-level administrators. Overall, many Chinese see a country that is dotted with too many powerful barons.

What the Chinese won’t say but many Western observers do is that political repression also weakens the system. Young people are angry and jobless. Outlets for their frustration are quickly shut off. Sensible opposition leaders are pushed into exile or prison, ceding the field to hotheads. Universities have grown more than tenfold but there are insufficient jobs for all these bright new graduates.

Ethiopia is stuck thanks to its paranoid elite. The country will be able to limp on for a while, given its impressive growth rates. It may even get further boosts from new infrastructure like hydropower. But Ethiopia is missing out on becoming something far more impressive.

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Win-win deal helps avoid war over Ethiopia’s $5 billion Nile dam

Good for Ethiopia, good for Egypt

CRISIS averted? Scientists may be on the verge of resolving a potentially war-triggering water dispute: how to share out the flow of the River Nile. A decades-long row over one of the world\’s longest rivers pits downstream Egypt, whose agriculture depends on the river\’s flow, against upstream Ethiopia, which is building Africa\’s biggest hydroelectric dam.

There have been threats of war over the $5-billion dam, but researchers hope they have come up with the bones of a win-win deal that gives more water and electricity to both countries. They are now pressing for its inclusion in a final deal on the dam to be signed next year.

Ethiopia began construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in a gorge of the Blue Nile, the Nile\’s biggest tributary, in 2011 and expects to have it up and running in 2017. The dam will be able to hold back the entire flow of the Blue Nile for more than a year, potentially cutting supplies to Egypt and Sudan (see map).

But on 23 March, the three governments announced a surprise preliminary agreement to share the water. Behind the move was an optimistic assessment by international hydrologists and engineers, which has now been made public.

The solution involves reducing the losses to evaporation from Lake Nasser, the reservoir behind Egypt\’s Aswan High Dam in the Nubian desert. Up to 16 cubic kilometres of water evaporate annually from its surface – a quarter of the Nile\’s average flow and up to 40 per cent in a dry year.

Storing more of that water in the reservoir behind Ethiopia\’s dam could cut those losses, as it is deeper, has a surface area less than a third as great and sits in the cool and wet highlands. But it would also cut Egypt\’s electricity generation, so Ethiopia would need to share electricity from its new dam, says Kenneth Strzepek at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Sudan, too, could benefit from the dam and a more even water flow, reducing the risk of flooding and increasing the potential for irrigation. \”The government of Sudan is already selling land leases for new farmland by the river,\” says Alex de Waal of the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University in Boston.

This article appeared in print under the headline \”Avoiding war over Ethiopia\’s Nile dam\”

The surprising reason the US is prosecuting the FIFA case

Source: VOX

The United States is pursuing corruption charges against 14 current and former officials from FIFA, the global governing body for international soccer, federal prosecutorsannounced Wednesday.

There is some irony in the fact that this case is being brought by US federal prosecutors. The United States is famously uninterested in soccer, which lags behind (American) football, basketball, and baseball in popularity. So what’s this case doing in a Brooklyn court?

Part of the explanation is that many US federal laws have a global sweep — especially those that involve financial wrongdoing. As long as there is some “nexus” with the US to provide jurisdiction, such as the involvement of a US financial institution or a US citizen, then US attorneys often can and do prosecute wrongdoing that took place primarily overseas. For instance, in 2014 former Guatemalan president Alfonso Portillo was sentenced to six years in US federal prison for laundering money through US banks. The corruption at the core of the case took place in Guatemala — Portillo was accused of using the office of the president as his “personal ATM” — but the nexus with US banks was enough for him to be prosecuted by US courts.

That’s why the indictment focuses so much on what it refers to as the “centrality of the US financial system” to the alleged crimes: the use of US financial institutions gives prosecutors jurisdiction to prosecute the cases.

But the FIFA case actually has much stronger connections to the United States than one might have guessed.

The New York Times reports that the indictment was built on information obtained from former FIFA executive Chuck Blazer — a US citizen. Blazer, who was the general secretary of CONCACAF, the regional organization governing soccer in North America, Central America, and the Caribbean, secretly pleaded guilty in 2013 to charges including wire fraud, racketeering, money laundering, and tax evasion. Bloomberg describes him as a “former Westchester soccer dad.” Several other defendants are US citizens. And one of the corporate entities that already pleaded guilty is a US company, Traffic Sports USA.

CONCACAF  has its principal administrative office is in Miami. And soccer is growingmore popular in the US, which has raised the value of the marketing rights that were obtained through bribes.

In other words, this isn’t just a case of a federal prosecutor aggressively targeting conduct overseas. This is a case in which US individuals and a US company conspired to commit crimes with foreign co-conspirators, using US financial institutions, in order to exploit US and foreign markets. Viewed through that lens, it’s not surprising that the Justice Department decided that this was a good use of US federal resources.

Ethiopia’s May 24 Parliamentary and Regional Elections

Press Statement

Marie Harf
Deputy Department Spokesperson, Office of the Spokesperson
Washington, DC

May 27, 2015

The United States commends the people of Ethiopia for their civic participation in generally peaceful parliamentary and regional elections on May 24. We acknowledge the National Electoral Board’s organizational efforts and the African Union’s role as the only international observer mission on the ground. We also note the importance of the nine televised party debates as progress in fostering open public discussion of the challenges facing the country. We encourage all candidates, political parties and their supporters to resolve any outstanding differences or concerns peacefully in accordance with Ethiopia’s constitution and laws.

The United States remains deeply concerned by continued restrictions on civil society, media, opposition parties, and independent voices and views. We regret that U.S. diplomats were denied accreditation as election observers and prohibited from formally observing Ethiopia’s electoral process. Apart from the election observation mission fielded by the African Union, there were no international observer missions on the ground in Ethiopia. We are also troubled that opposition party observers were reportedly prevented from observing the electoral process in some locations.

A free and vibrant media, space for civil society organizations to work on democracy and human rights concerns, opposition parties able to operate without impediment, and a diversity of international and domestic election observers are essential components for free and fair elections. The imprisonment and intimidation of journalists, restrictions on NGO activities, interference with peaceful opposition party activities, and government actions to restrict political space in the lead-up to election day are inconsistent with these democratic processes and norms.

The United States has a broad and strong partnership with Ethiopia and its people. We remain committed to working with the Ethiopian Government and its people to strengthen Ethiopia’s democratic institutions, improve press freedom, and promote a more open political environment consistent with Ethiopia’s international human rights obligations.

‘Assimilation’ to ‘genocide’: Australia acknowledges stolen generations

Forcible separation […] since the very first days of the European occupation of Australia.

Assimilation, reconciliation, ‘Stronger Futures’ and genocide are just some of the labels given to Australia’s policy of removing mostly mixed-race children from their families between 1910 and the 1970s.

May 26 marks an annual ‘National Day of Healing’ – formerly known as ‘National Sorry Day’ – acknowledging the ‘stolen generations’: an estimated 50,000 children taken from their families across more than six decades. Many were never reunited with their relatives.

Officials and some missionaries claimed the relocation of indigenous children was done with good intent, arguing that mainstream society offered more advantages, Time magazine reports. However, this seems to be contradicted by A. O. Neville, Australia’s Commissioner for Native Affairs during the 1930s. He reportedly said that the only way to assimilate people of Aboriginal lineage was by “breeding out the colour.”

‘Bringing them Home’

On May 26, 1997, Australia’s Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission presented parliament with the results of an inquiry into the alleged mistreatment of children over the decades-long period.

The 680-page ‘Bringing Them Home’ report was damning. Originally dubbed policies of ‘assimilation’ and ‘protection’, the practices carried out during the period by ‘Native Affairs’ officials were described as “an act of genocide, aimed at wiping out indigenous families, communities, and cultures.”

It found that successive governments, as well as religious bodies, had been complicit in the “forcible separation” of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children from their families “since the very first days of the European occupation of Australia.”

Three main recommendations came from the inquiry: for funding to be made available to indigenous organisations to help chronicle their history; for reparations to be made to those forcibly removed from their relatives; for the Australian government to make an official apology and acknowledge their predecessors’ responsibility for the laws, policies and practices of forcible removal.


While an annual ‘National Sorry Day’ was established exactly a year after the publication of the report, other recommendations proved to be easier said than done.

The final point was a particularly thorny issue. At the time of the report being published, Conservative John Howard was Prime Minister of Australia. He, notably, refused to issue a formal apology, instead expressing “deep and sincere regret that indigenous Australians suffered injustices under the practices of past generations.” His excuse: the then government of Australia “was not responsible for the actions of past governments” and “admissions of wrongdoing could open the door to compensation suits.”

Ten years after the implementation of ‘National Sorry Day,’ Kevin Rudd made a formal apology to Australia’s indigenous people. A day after being sworn in as prime minister, the leader of the Labor Party vowed to “remove a great stain from the nation’s soul, and in a true spirit of reconciliation to open a new chapter.” He added: “I want to be blunt about this. There will be no compensation.” Described by the Sydney Morning Herald as a “shrewd manoeuvre”, Rudd’s statement was perceived to have “cleared away a piece of political wreckage in a way that responds to some of its own supporters’ emotional needs, yet changes nothing.”

While compensation may not have been forthcoming, Rudd did go on to set aside a 4.5 million-dollar (3.2 million-euro) budget to close gaps between indigenous and non-indigenous Australians in health, education and unemployment. In a later New York Times interview, Rudd described the apology as “the spiritual bridge that is necessary to be crossed before you can start doing practical stuff.”

Source: Euronews

በ2007 ዓ.ም ሀገር አቀፍ ምርጫ፤ ሁሉም የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች እንዴት አሸናፊ ሊሆኑ ይችላሉ?

አምስተኛው ዙር ሀገር አቀፍ ምርጫ የፊታችን ግንቦት 16 ቀን 2007 ዓ.ም ይካሄዳል። የምርጫ ቦርድ መረጃ እንሚያሳያው 58 የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች ተመዝግበው ወደ ሀገር አቀፍ ምርጫ ውስጥ ገብተዋል። እነዚህ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች በአጠቃላይ 5 ሺህ 783 ለፌዴራል ፓርላማ እና ለክልል ም/ቤቶች ተወዳዳሪ ዕጩዎችን አስመዝግበው ለእሁዱ ምርጫ የህዝቡን ውሳኔ በመጠባብቅ ላይ ናቸው። ከዘጠና ሚሊዮን የኢትዮጵያ ሕዝብ መካከል እድሚያቸው ለምርጫ ከደረሱ ዜጎች መካከል 36 ነጥብ 8 ሚሊየን ኢትዮጵያዊ ዜጎች ድምጽ ለመስጠት የቀናት ጊዚያትን እየተጠባበቁ ይገኛሉ።

በምርጫ ቦርድ የተደለደለውን የመገናኛ ብዙሃን የአየር ሰዓቶች እና በሕትመት ውጤቶች ላይ የሚስተናገዱ ፅሁፎችን የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች አጠቃቀማቸው በጣም የተለያየ እንደነበር የኢትዮጵያ ፕሮድካስት ባለስልጣን በሳለፍነው ሳምንት ያስታወቀው። እንደባለስልጣኑ መረጃ ከሆነ ኢህአዴግ 98 በመቶ፣ ተቃዋሚ ፓርቲዎች በድምር 51 በመቶ፣ አጋር ፓርቲ ተብለው የሚጠሩ ሆኖም ግን ራሳቸው ፖለቲካዊ ሕልውና ያላቸው ፓርቲዎች 63 በመቶ መጠቀማቸውን ይፋ አድርጓል። በአጠቃላይ ለቅስቀሳ የቀረቡ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች ሰነዶች 98.31 በመቶ በምርጫ ቦርድ የጸደቀውን ሕጋዊ የቅስቀሳ ስርዓቶችን ያሟሉ መሆናቸውን ባለስልጣኑ ጨምሮ አስረድቷል።

ግንቦት 16 ቀን 2007 ዓ.ም የሚደረገው ሀገር አቀፍ ምርጫ ቀጣዩን የኢትዮጵያ መንግስት ሥርዓተ-መንግስት የሚመሰርተውን የፖለቲካ ፓርቲ ይፋ የሚሆንበት እንደሚሆን ይጠበቃል። የቅድመ ምርጫው የነበረው ሂደት ከሞላ ጎደል በሰላም እየተጠናቀቀ ያለበት ሁኔታዎች ናቸው ያሉት። ቀሪው የድምጽ መስጠትና የድምጽ ቆጠራ እንዲሁም ድህረ ምርጫ በጉጉት ተጠባቂ አድርጓቸዋል።

በቅድመ ምርጫው በልዩነት ሊነሳ የሚችለው በተለያዩ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች መካከል ተነስቶ የነበረው የፓርቲዎች የሕጋዊ ውክልና ጥያቄዎች ነበሩ። የውክልና ጥያቄ ያነሱ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች ለሁለትና ከዚያ በላይ ተከፋፍለው እኔነኝ…እኔነኝ… የፓርቲው ሕጋዊ ወኪሉ እየተባባሉ ለበርካታ ወራት እሰጥ ገባ ውስጥ መክረማቸው የሚታወስ ነው። በመጨረሻም ምርጫ ቦርድ በሰበሰበውና በሰነድ በነበረው መረጃ መነሻ ሕጋዊ ውሳኔዎች አስተላልፎ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎቹ ውሳኔ አግኝተው ውዝግቡ እንዲቆም ተደርጓል። የምርጫ ቦርድ ውሳኔን የተቃወሙ የፖለቲካ ሃይሎች ቢኖሩም የመጨረሻው ውሳኔ ሰጪ ምርጫ ቦርድ በመሆኑ የተሰጠው ውሳኔ ወደ ተግባር ተለውጦ ውዝግብ ውስጥ የነበሩ ፓርቲዎች ወደ ምርጫው ተቀላቅለዋል።

በዚህ ጽሁፍም ቀሪዎቹን የድምጽ መስጠትና የድምጽ ቆጠራ እንዲሁም ድህረ ምርጫ ሂደቶችን ሁላችንም አሸናፊዎች ሆነን እንዴት መውጣት እንችላለን የሚለውን ጥያቄ ለመመለስ ይሞክራል። ሁላችንም አሸናፊ መሆን የሚጠበቅብን ዋነኛ ምክንያት በሁሉም ባለድርሻ አካለት ዘንድ ቅቡል የሆነ ሀገር አቀፍ ምርጫ ማድረግ ስለሚጠበቅብን ስለሚጠቅመንም ጭምር ነው። ቅቡልነት ሲባል “Governments have authority only if their power is legitimate. Legitimate power means power that is recognized and accepted by society as legally and morally correct.” ይህም ሲባል፣ ሥርዓተ መንግስታት የማስተዳደር ስልጣን የሚኖራቸው ስልጣናቸው ቅቡል ሲሆን ብቻ ነው። ቅቡል ስልጣን ማለት ስልጣኑ በሕብረተሰብ ውስጥ በሕግና በሞራል እውቅና እና ተቀባይነት ሲያገኝ ነው።

ይህን መሰል ቅቡልነት ባለቤትም ሰጪም ሕዝብ ብቻ ነው። ሆኖም ግን የሕዝብ አካል የሆኑ ባለድርሻም አካላትም በዚህ የቅቡልነት አሰጣጥ ሂደት ውስጥ የራሳቸው ሚና አላቸው። በተለይ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች እና የጋዜጠኞች ሚና በቀላሉ የሚታይ አይደለም። ሌላው በሕግ ስልጣን የተሰጣቸው የምርጫ ቦርድ ሃላፊዎችና አስፈፃሚዎችም ሚና በቀላሉ የሚታይ አይሆንም። ስለዚህም ከማን ምን ይጠበቃል በመጪው ምርጫ የሚለውን መመልት አግባብነቱ አጠያያቂ አይደለም።

በመጪው ምርጫ ከጋዜጠኞች ምን ይጠበቃል?

በየትኛውም ዓለም የሚገኙ የምርጫ ዘጋቢዎች ጋዜጠኞች የምርጫ ዘገባ ሲያቀርቡ ቢያንስ አራት መሰረታዊ መስፈርቶች ማሟላት ይጠበቅባቸዋል። እንዲሁም በመጪው ሀገር አቀፍ ምርጫ የሚሰመራ ጋዜጠኞች። ይሄውም አንደኛ፣ ትክክለኛ የምርጫ ዘገባ መረጃ ማግኘት ማቅረብ (Accuracy)። የተጋነኑ በእውነት ላይ ያልተመሰረቱ ዘገባዎችን ከማቅረብ መቆጠብ። ሁለተኛ፤ ከወገንተኝነት የፀዳ መረጃ ማቅረብ (Impartiality (Fair Balance) ለሁሉም ተወዳዳሪ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች ሚዛናዊ ዘገባ ማቅረብ። በተለየ መልኩ ለአንድ ወይም ለተወሰኑ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች የተለየ የምርጫ ዘገባ ሪፖርት አለማቅረብ። እንዲሁም ጋዜጠኛው የራሱን እምቅ ፍላጎት ከምርጫ ዘገባ ሪፖርቶች ጋር አያይዞ ከማቅረብ መቆጠብ አለበት። ሶስተኛ፣ጋዜጠኛው ለሚያቀርበው የምርጫ ሪፖርት ሃላፊነት ሊሰማውም (Responsibility) መውሰድም አለበት። ጋዜጠኛው በሚያቀርበው ሪፖርት የምርጫው ሂደት እንዳይዛባ እና የዜጎች ህይወትን ወደ አላስፈላጊ መስመር ሊከት በሚችል መልኩ እንዳይሆን ሃላፊነት መውሰድ አለበት። ጋዜጠኛው በሚያቀርበው ሪፖርት ቢያንስ ለራሱ ተማኝ መሆን ይጠበቅበታል።

በመጪው ምርጫ የሚሰማራ ጋዜጠኛ ራሱን ከምን መቆጠብ አለበት? አንደኛ፣ በተሳሳቱ መረጃ መነሻ ሃሰተኛ ክሶችን (Defamatory) በተወዳደሪ እጩዎች ላይ ሆነ ምርጫውን በሚያስፈጽመው ተቋም ላይ ከመዘገብ መቆጠብ አለበት። ሁለተኛ፣ በምንም መልኩ በተለያዩ መገናኛ ብዙሃን የቀረቡ ዘገባዎችን የማጣራት የማረጋገጥ ስራዎችን ሳይሰራ (Derivative) የምርጫ ዘገቢ ጋዜጠኛ ዘገባዎችን ደግሞ ከማቅረብ መቆጠብ አለበት። ሶስተኛ፣ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎችን ወይም ተወዳደሪ ፖለቲከኞችን ግለሰባዊ ሆነ ተቋማዊ ገጽታቸውን የሚያጠልሽ ሪፖርት (Malicious) ከመዘገብ መቆጠብ አለበት። የጋዜጠኝነት ሙያውን ተገን በማድረግ መረጃዎችን በማዛባት መራጭ ሕዝቡን ሆን ብሎ ወደ ግጭት እንዲያመራ ከሚያደርጉ ዘገባዎች ራሱን ማራቅ ይጠበቅበታል። አራተኛ፣ በምን አይነት መልኩ የሚቀርብ የገንዘብ ሆነ ሌላ የማባበያ ስጦታዎችን ተቀብሎ ከመሞሰን ራሱን መቆጠብ አለበት። ሙያውን ከመሸጥ መቆጠብ አለበት። በተለይ ጋዜጠኛው በኢትዮጵያ ፖለቲካ ውስጥ የመወሰን ሕጋዊ ሆነ ሞራላዊ መብት ከሌላቸው ሶስተኛ ወገኖች አጀንዳ ራሱን በብዙ ርቀት ነጥሎ ማስቀመጥ እና አጀንዳቸውን ከመቀበል መቆጠብ አለበት።

ከፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች ምን ይጠበቃል?

የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች የምርጫ ቆጠራ ተጠናቋ የምርጫ ውጤቱ ሲገለፅ የሚሰጡት አስተያየት በምርጫው ውጤት ላይ የተቀባይነት ወይም የጥርጣሬ መንፈስ ሊረጩበት ይችላሉ። የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች በምርጫው ውጤት ላይ ትክክለኛ ምልከታና አስተያየት እንዲኖራቸው ቢያንስ የሚከተሉትን ከግምት መውሳድ ይኖርባቸዋል።

የፓርቲን ጥቅም፤ ከሕዝብ ሰላም በላይ አለመመልከት

በሀገር አቀፍ ምርጫ ለመሳተፍ ወደ ውድድር ውስጥ የገባ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲ የሚያገኘው የምርጫ ውጤት ምንም ይሁን ምንም ከሕብረተሰቡ ሰላም በላይ ሊሆን እንደማይችል ግንዛቤ ሊወስድ ይገባል። ሕዝቡ የሚሰጠው የምርጫ ድምፅ ውሳኔ የመጨረሻ ውሳኔ አድርጎ ለመቀበል የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች ከወዲሁ መዘጋጀት አለባቸው። ከሕዝቡ ውሳኔ ውጪ በማኛውም ዋጋ የፖለቲካ ስልጣን ይገባኛል የሚል የፖለቲካ ፓርቲ፣ በሰነቀው የፓርቲ ጥቅም መጠንና ደረጃ ለሚፈጠረው ማንኛውም አይነት ሁኔታ ሃላፊነትንም ለመውሰድ መዘጋጀት ይጠበቅበታል።

ለምርጫ በቀረቡት ተወዳዳሪ ልክ፤ የፖለቲካ ስልጣን መሻት

የኢትዮጵያ ሥርአተ መንግስትን ለመመስረት የሚያስችሉ 547 የሕዝብ ተወካዮች መቀመጫ ወንበሮች መካከል ሃምሳ ሲደመር አንድ ማግኘት የቻለ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲ የራሱን ሥርአተ መንግስት ይመሰርታል። በመጪው ሀገር አቀፍ ምርጫም ተወዳዳሪ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች ብቻቸውን ወይም የጥምር መንግስት በሚያገኙት የምርጫ ውጤት መሰረት ቀጣዩን ሥርአተ መንግስት ለመመስረት ይችላሉ።

ሆኖም ግን ለውድድር ያቀረቡት የተወዳዳሪ መጠን ሃምሳ ሲደመር አንድ የሆኑ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች ከወዲሁ እስከምን እርቀት መጓዝ እንደሚችሉ ይገነዘቡታል። ይህም ማለት ብቻቸውን ሥርዓተ መንግስት መመስረት አይችሉም። ስለዚህ ከምርጫው የሚያገኙትን ውጤት ተከትሎ ከየትኛው የፖለቲካ ፓርቲ ጋር ብጣመር የተሻለ ይሆናል የሚለውን አሁን መመለስ አለባቸው። ስለዚህም ከምርጫው የሚጠብቁት ውጤት መሆኑ ያለበት ለመወዳደር ካዝመዘገቧቸው እጭዎቻቸው ቁጥር ጋር እኩል መሆን አለበት። ከዚህ ውጪ የፖለቲካ ስልጣን በመጪው ምርጫ መፈለግ ከሌላ እምቅ ፍላጎት ጋር ሕብረተሰቡም ሆነ ሕግ አስፈፃሚው ሊመለከተው ይችላል።

ከሶስተኛ ወገኖች አጀንዳ ሁሉም ጽዱ መሆን አለባቸው

ቀጣዩ ሀገር አቀፍ ምርጫ ከሶስተኛ ወገኖች አጀንዳ የጸዳ መሆን አለበት። የሶስተኛ ወገኖች አጀንዳ የሚባለው በቀጥታም ሆነ በተዘዋዋሪ ከምዕራቡ ሆነ ከምስራቁ ዓለም የሚሰጡ አጀንዳዎች ፈጻሚ አለመሆን ነው። ከዚህ በተጨማሪ በሃይል መንግስት ለመመስረት ጦር መሳሪያ ካነገቡ ወገኖች አጀንዳ የፖለቲካ ፓርተዎች ራሳቸውን ማራቅ አለባቸው። ምክንያቱም ለፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች አጀንዳ የሚሰጠውም የያዙትንም አጀንዳ የሚያጸድቀው በመጪው እሁድ ድምጽን ለመስጠት የሚውጣው ሕዝብ ብቻ ነው። ከዚህ ሕዝብ ፍላጎት ውጪ መንቀሳቀስ የሶስተኛ ወገኖች አጀንዳ በአደባባይ ከማራመድ ተለይቶ የሚታይ ተግባር አይደለም።

ቀጣይ ምርጫ ሊኖር እንደሚችል ታሳቢ ማድረግ

አምስተኛው ዙር ሀገር አቀፍ ምርጫ በመጪው እሁድ 16 ቀን 2007 ዓ.ም ይደረጋል። የኢትዮጵያ ምርጫ ቦርድም በተሰጠው ስልጣን መሰረት በየአምስት አመቱ ሀገር አቀፍ ምርጫ ያከናውናል። ስለዚህም ቀጣዩ ምርጫ በ2012 ዓ.ም ይካሄዳል ማለት ነው።

የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎችም እሁድ በሚደረገው ምርጫ የሚፈልጉትን ያህል ውጤት ማግኘት ባይችሉ በቀጣይ በ2012 በሚደረገው ሀገር አቀፍ ምርጫ አሁንላይ ያለባቸውን ድክመቶች አርመው አሸናፊ ፓርቲ ሆነው ሊመጡ ይችላሉ። በሌላ መልኩም የተወሰነ የሕዝብ ተወካዮች የምርጫ ወንበር የሚያገኙ ፓርቲዎችም በበኩላቸው በቀጣይ ምርጫ የበለጠ ወንበር ለማግኘት መስራት እንዳለባቸው ግንዛቤ በመውሰድ በመጪው ምርጫ የሚያገኙትን የፓርላማ መቀመጫ በተገቢው መንገድ እንዴት እንደሚጠቀሙ ከወዲሁ ሊዘጋጁበት ይገባል።

በሃምሳ ሲደመር አንድ የኢትዮጵያን ሥርአተ መንግስት ለመመስረት የሚበቃ ፓርቲም በበኩሉ አንድም ሆነ ከዚያ በላይ የፓርላማ መቀመጫ ማግኘት ከቻሉም ሆነ የፓርላማ መቀመጫ ማግኘት ካልቻሉትም ጋር በጋራ በመሆን ለመስራት መዘጋጀት ይጠበቅበታል። ምክንያቱም በአብላጫ ድምጽ ማሸነፍ ማለት የሁሉንም የኢትዮጵያ ሕዝብ ውክልና ማግኘት ባለመሆኑ ነው። ለጊዜው ያለውም ብቸኛ የተሻለ አመራጭ ምርጫ ብቻ በመሆኑም የተገኘ ውጤት መሆኑን አሸናፊው ፓርቲ ሊረዳው ይገባል።

ምርጫው በሰላም ካለቀ፣ ተሸናፊ ፓርቲ የለም

እሁድ የሚደረገው ሀገር አቀፍ ምርጫ በሰላም ከተፈጸመ አሸናፊም ተሸናፊም አይኖርም። ምክንያቱም፣ በሕግ የበላይነት መከበር ውስጥ ተሸናፊም አሸናፊም አይኖርም፤ የሚኖረው የሕግ የበላይነት ብቻ ነው።


ከግንቦት 7 ጋር አብረዋል የተባሉ የመከላከያ አባላት ክስ ተመሰረተባቸው

በሕዝብ ተወካዮች ምክር ቤት ሽብርተኛ ድርጅት ተብሎ ከተሰየመው የግንቦት ሰባት ድርጅት ጋር ግንኙነት ፈጥረዋል፤ አባላትን መልምለዋል፤ ለሽብርተኛ ቡድኑ መረጃ አቀብለዋል፤ እንዲሁም ወደኤርትራ በመኮብለል የሽብር ድርጅቱን ፖለቲካዊና ወታደራዊ ስልጠና ለመውሰድ ተሰናድተው ሲንቀሳቀሱ ደርሼባቸዋለሁ በሚል የፌዴራል ዐቃቤ ሕግ ክስ የመሰረተባቸው ሰባት የመከላከያ ሰራዊት አባላት ትናንት ግንቦት 11 ቀን 2007 ዓ.ም በፌዴራሉ ከፍተኛ ፍርድ ቤት 19ኛ ወንጀል ችሎት ቀረቡ።

በዐቃቤ ሕግ ክስ የተመሰረተባቸው ተከሳሾች 1ኛ መቶ አለቃ ማስረሻ ስጤ፣ 2ኛ መቶ አለቃ ብሩክ አጥናዬ፣ 3ኛ መቶ አለቃ ዳንኤል ግርማ፣ 4ኛ መቶ አለቃ ገዛኸኝ ደረሰ፣ 5ኛ ተስፋዬ እሸቴ፣ 6ኛ ሰይፉ ግርማ እና 7ኛ የሻምበል አድማው አዳሙ ናቸው። እንደክስ ዝርዝሩ ከሆነ ተከሳሾቹ በዋና ወንጀል አድራጊነት ተካፋይ በመሆን በቀጥታ እንዲሁም በመላ ሃሳባቸውና አድራጎታቸው በወንጀል ድርጊቱና በሚሰጠው ውጤት ሙሉ ተካፋይ በመሆን ሕገ-መንግስቱን እና ሕገ-መንግስታዊ ስርዓቱን በኃይል የማፈራረስ ዓላማን ይዘው ለማስፈፀም እና በመንግስት ላይ ተፅዕኖ ለማሳደር፤ ህብረተሰቡን ለማስፈራራት፤ የአገሪቱን ፖለቲካዊ፣ ኢኮኖሚያዊና ማህበራዊ ተቋማት ለማናጋትና ለማፍረስ ከሚንቀሳቀሰውና በሕዝብ ተወካዮች ምክር ቤት ሽብርተኛ ከተባለው የግንቦት ሰባት ድርጅት አባል በመሆንና በሽብር ድርጅት ለመሳተፍ ሲንቀሳቀሱ ደርሼባቸዋለሁ ይላል።

የፌዴራሉ ዐቃቤ ሕግ ትናንት በችሎት ለተገኙት ተጠርጣሪዎች ክሱ እንደደረሳቸው ተደርጎ በዝርዝር ሲነበብ፤ በተጠርጣሪዎቹ ላይ 10 ክሶች እንደቀረቡባቸው ለማወቅ ተችሏል። በተለይም ከ1ኛ እስከ 6ኛ ተከሳሾች ላይ በቀረበው ክስ መሠረት ቀኑና ወሩ በትክክል ተለይቶ ባልታወቀበት በ2006 ዓ.ም ከሽብር ድርጅቱ ከፍተኛ አመራር ከሆነው ሻለቃ አክሊሉ መዘነ አማካኝነት በህቡዕ ተመልምለው አባላትን እንዲመለምሉም ተልዕኮ ተሰጥቷቸው ይንቀሳቀስ ነበር ሲል ያትታል። በመሆኑም ተጠርጣሪዎቹ እያንዳንዳቸው ከአፌዲሪ መከላከያ የአየር ኃይል ንብረት የሆኑ አንድ-አንድ ማካሮቭ ሽጉጥና 16 ጥይቶችን ይዘው በመውጣትና በመሸጥ፤ እያንዳንዱ አንዱን ማካሮቭ በ2ሺህ 500 ብር እንዲሁም እያንዳንዳቸው የያዙትን 16 ጥይቶች በ240 ብር ዋጋ በመሸጥ ለግል ጥቅማቸው በማዋል በፈፀሙት ወታደራዊ ትጥቅና መሣሪያዎችን ያለአግባብ መገልገል ወንጀል ተከሰዋል ባይነው፤ዐቃቤ ሕግ።

በመሆኑም ተጠርጣሪዎቹ በአጠቃላይ በሽብርተኛ ድርጅት ውስጥ አባል በመሆን፣ ተልዕኮ በመቀበል፣ አባላትን በመመልመል፣ ለሽብር ድርጅቱ መረጃ በማቀበል እንዲሁም የሽብር ድርጅቱን ለመቀላቀል ወደኤርትራ ለመሄድ ሲሉ የተያዙ በመሆናቸው በፈፀሙት በሽብርተኛ ድርጅት ውስጥ በማናቸውም መልኩ መሳተፍ ወንጀል ተከሰዋል ሲል የክስ መዝገቡ ያትታል።

በዐቃቤ ሕግ የክስ ዝርዝር ውስጥ በብቸኝነት 10ኛው ክስ የተመሰረተበት ሻንበል አድማው አዳሙ ፈፅሞታል የተባው ወንጀል ከኢፌዲሪ አየር ኃይል ድሬዳዋ ቅርንጫፍ የሆነ አንድ ማካሮቭ ሽጉጥ ከ8 ጥይቶች ጋር በ33 ሺህ 700 ብር መግዛቱ እንደሆነ የጠቀሰው የዐቃቤ ሕግ ክስ፤ በዚህም በፈፀመው በከባድ ሁኔታ የመሸሸግ ወንጀል ተከሷል ይላል።

ተከሳሾቹ ትናንት (ማክሰኞ ግንቦት 11 ቀን 2007 ዓ.ም) ችሎት በቀረቡበት ወቅት የዋስትና መብታቸው እንዲከበርላቸው የጠየቁ ሲሆን፤ ዐቃቤ ሕግ በበኩሉ የጠቀስኳቸው የወንጀል አንቀፆች የዋስትና መብትን የሚያስከለክሉ ናቸው በሚል ለችሎቱ በማስረዳቱ ተቀባይነት አግኝቷል። በመሆኑም ተከሳሾቹ በማረሚያ ቤት ሆነው ጉዳያቸውን እንዲከታተሉ ታዟል። ነገር ግን በ7ኛ ተከሳሽ ጉዳይ ላይ ያለውን የዋስትና ጥያቄ መርምሮ ብይን ለመስጠትና ሁሉም ተከሳሾች በቀረበባቸው ክስ ላይ ያላቸውን ሀሳብ ለማዳመጥ ለግንቦት 21 ቀን 2007 ዓ.ም ተለዋጭ ቀጠሮ ይዟል።